Over-confidence in Bayesian analyses of galaxy rotation curves …

Yesterday I had a ‘Matters Arising’ in Nature Astronomy published (non-paywalled shareable link here) on the topic given as the title of this blog post; with co-authors, Michael Burgess & Garry Angus.  Aside from identifying some particular technical issues with a published study on the topic of MOND-inspired radial acceleration relationships in galaxies, we highlight the potential of model misspecification to lead to overly tight parameter constraints or overly confident assessments of model choice in Bayesian analyses—and we remind readers of the consequent value in a model testing and development cycle built around simple diagnostic tools for spotting posterior ‘funkiness’ (e.g. Gabry et al. 2019).

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