In the press …

On Wednesday evening our (that is, the MAP team’s) big paper assessing progress towards the Millennium Development Goal of having “halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria” across endemic Africa was published online in Nature.  The principal statistical model is a latent Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) as SPDE approximation to a continuous, spatial GP representing the changing prevalence surface across Africa embedded in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.  To convert prevalence to incidence we used the ensemble model derived from three contemporary individual-based simulation codes as described separately in my recent Nature Communications paper.  The good news is that we found the incidence of malaria has indeed declined substantially over the past fifteen years in concert with the delivery of large-scale intervention campaigns (Insecticide Treated (Bed-)Nets [ITNs], Indoor Residual Spraying [IRS], and effective treatment with Artemisin Combination Therapy [ACTs]) funded by the international community, as well covered on the BBC news and The Guardian.  More information & interactive maps can be found on the new MAP webpage.


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