Notes on sufficiency …

Just finished reading up on the measure-theoretic formulation of sufficiency; so for other neophytes I’m uploading my annotated version of Halmos & Savage (1949):  img-928022611-0001 . Presumably if Jstor want to do me like they did Aaron Schwartz I guess I’ll have to take down this link tho 🙂

Now, back to my real research question of the day: when Derren Brown does that trick where he speed counts a tray full of buttons, is he somehow using statistics? My hypothesis is that he takes advantage of the fact that the buttons (at least on the show I watched last night) take on only 5 different colours, along with his prior knowledge of the total number of buttons in the jar.  That is, I’m not suggesting he’s a perfect Bayesian machine (a la Jaynes), just that he might have a simple multiplicative rule for guessing the total number of buttons on the plate from his quick count of the number of red buttons, say. (Also I’m not interested in what google has to say about this button trick!)


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One Response to Notes on sufficiency …

  1. lukebarnes says:

    Secret scale hidden under the bowl of buttons …

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